Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,777$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(696 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,277.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,277.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(29.1 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(105.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $515$ on 2020-06-30

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,714$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,640.1}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(30,640.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,963$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(592 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,921.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,921.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $551$ on 2020-06-30

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $240,578$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(6.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,568.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(233,568.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,767$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(8.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(54.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,762.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,762.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,563$ on 2020-06-30

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,635,417$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,506,766.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 63.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,506,766.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $127,417$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{120,487.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.4)}}\) (asimptote \(120,487.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,787,369$ on 2020-06-30

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $314,160$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(5.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{303,656.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(303,656.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,815$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(8.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,692.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(41,692.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $268,975$ on 2020-06-30

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $68,451$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,639.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 100.3)}}\) (asimptote \(93,639.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,333$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(872 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,154.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,154.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $63,118$ on 2020-06-30

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $195,418$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(5.93 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{183,056.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(183,056.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,990$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,691.5}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,691.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,328$ on 2020-06-30

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chad recovered 97%
Djibouti recovered 96%
Cuba recovered 95%
Malta recovered 94%
Malaysia recovered 94%
Estonia recovered 93%
Korea, South recovered 87%
Italy recovered 86%
Lithuania recovered 79%
Singapore recovered 74%
Turkey recovered 73%
Georgia recovered 68%
Sri Lanka recovered 66%
Qatar recovered 60%
Hungary recovered 57%
Guinea recovered 39%
Belarus recovered 38%
Yemen recovered 38%
United Arab Emirates recovered 37%
Tajikistan recovered 29%
Canada recovered 21%
Poland recovered 20%
Iran recovered 19%
Sierra Leone recovered 17%
Peru recovered 7%

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $866$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(177 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{865.2}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(865.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(30.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71.8}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 14.9)}}\) (asimptote \(71.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-06-30

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,682$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(358 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,388.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 69.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,388.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.31 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.7)}}\) (asimptote \(57.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $104$ on 2020-06-30

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,341$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(636 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,217.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,217.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $86$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(29.6 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.9}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 28.1)}}\) (asimptote \(83.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41$ on 2020-06-30

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $670$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(188 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{641.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(641.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-30

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-06-30