Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,777$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(696 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,277.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,277.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(29.1 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(105.9\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $515$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,714$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,640.1}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(30,640.1\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,963$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(592 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,921.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,921.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $551$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $240,578$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(6.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,568.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(233,568.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,767$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(8.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(54.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,762.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,762.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,563$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,635,417$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,506,766.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 63.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,506,766.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $127,417$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{120,487.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.4)}}\) (asimptote \(120,487.2\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,787,369$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $314,160$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(5.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{303,656.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(303,656.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43,815$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(8.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,692.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(41,692.4\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $268,975$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $68,451$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(4.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,639.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 100.3)}}\) (asimptote \(93,639.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,333$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(872 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,154.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,154.2\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $63,118$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $195,418$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(5.93 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{183,056.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(183,056.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,990$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,691.5}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,691.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,328$ on 2020-06-30